Post Trade Analysis – Trane Technologies (TT)

Hello Traders!

Mark from the Signal Trader Pro team here!

Each week, we break down a real trade to show you exactly how the Signal Trader Pro algorithm works—and what lessons we can take from it. This time, we’re diving into Trane Technologies (TT), a global leader in HVAC and climate innovation.

Sometimes the best trades aren’t the biggest winners—they’re the ones that sharpen discipline and reinforce your edge.

In a quarter marked by high volatility, “Deep Seek”-induced capital spending fears, and tariff-fueled panic selling, Trane Technologies delivered a measured return while testing our ability to stick with a fundamentally sound setup through market turbulence.

Despite a deep S&P 500 selloff, we exited Trane with a strategic 4.0% gain over 125 days. Here’s how the trade unfolded—and how we’re evolving our process because of it.

Company Overview: Trane Technologies (NYSE: TT)

Trane Technologies is a global leader in climate innovation, producing energy-efficient HVAC systems, refrigeration units, and sustainability-driven infrastructure solutions. Trane continues to benefit from strong secular tailwinds, growing backlogs, and a reputation for execution.

Spotting the Opportunity: Market Context & Setup

After hitting a record high on November 25, 2024, Trane began a steady and orderly decline, slipping below its 100-day moving average in mid-December. By December 19, the stock’s RSI fell below 30, flagging a deeply oversold condition. On December 24, the RSI crossed back above 30, triggering our system’s RSI Crossover Signal.

When we entered on December 26, 2024, at $378.33, there were no negative company-specific catalysts—just a classic profit-taking pattern in a stock that had been trading above analyst price targets.

Fundamentally, Trane remained strong. It scored a perfect 15/15 on our proprietary QUANTAMENTAL scoring system, with especially strong earnings revisions. For us, this confirmed a high-probability setup in a fundamentally sound name.

Executing the Trade: Entry & Exit

After our entry, Trane moved higher and nearly hit our initial price target on January 26, 2025. But the next day, shares dropped nearly 10% due to broad market volatility tied to Deep Seek AI-related headlines. This triggered fears around capital spending cuts in AI infrastructure, causing a sector-wide pullback.

Trane continued drifting lower alongside the broader market, which was rocked by tariff-induced trade war fears. Both Trane and the S&P 500 bottomed on April 7, 2025. Despite a 15% drawdown from our entry, our alpha-based stop loss kept us in the trade.

Then came earnings. On April 30, Trane posted an 11% earnings beat, and the stock jumped 9%. We exited the next day, May 1, 2025, at $393.55, hitting our adjusted price target based on a two-thirds retracement to the trailing 90-day high.

The result: a +4.0% gain over 125 days, or about 12% annualized—a modest win, but an important one for process discipline.

QUANTAMENTAL Scoring Review

Each week, we highlight a key part of how the Signal Trader Pro algorithm evaluates opportunities and manages risk—by combining technical analysis with fundamental scoring.

Technical Strength

We look for strong stocks in healthy uptrends that stumble temporarily, offering high-probability entries.

✅ Strong Trend Structure: Both the 50DMA and the 100DMA stayed above the 200DMA—indicating a well-supported long-term uptrend. (1 point for each, 2 total)
✅ Positive Momentum: A strong Year-over-Year return, a key indicator of underlying strength. (1 point)
✅ RSI Cross Over Signal: The sell-off pushed RSI below 30, triggering our oversold alert. Historically, Trane has bounced strongly from this level, and our RSI back test confirmed the high probability of a reversal. (1 point)

Earnings Revision Analysis

One of the most powerful drivers of stock price movements is earnings revisions—when analysts raise their future earnings estimates based on strong financial performance.

For Trane, we analyzed the earnings estimates for 2025 and saw a clear pattern of upward revisions over the past few years. This was strong confirmation that Trane was set up for a high-probability, high-reward trade—which ultimately delivered after navigating medium term market volatility.

Post-Trade Reflections: Refining Our Execution

This trade followed the system: entry on signal, hold through volatility, exit on target. But the path to profit was more volatile and drawn out than expected. And this isn't the first time we've seen that pattern.

We’ve noticed a recurring theme:

Trades that start strong out of the gate occasionally give back gains or enter long consolidations, reducing annualized returns and increasing capital tie-up.

In response, we’re actively evaluating a refinement to our exit strategy:

1. Take partial profits once a defined gain threshold is hit (e.g., 5–7%)

2. Move the remaining position to a trailing stop

This would allow us to:

• Capture early alpha

• Protect against unexpected macro shocks

• Free up capital sooner

• Let a portion ride the trend without full exposure

While we’re conducting our back testing, we would love to hear your thoughts on this potential refinement.

Drop a comment, let us know in the STP Whatsapp group chat or email us at [email protected].

Want to Catch the Next Big Trade?

If this kind of high-probability trade interests you, now is the time to take action. 🚀 Signal Trader Pro scans 1,300+ stocks daily to identify low-risk, high-reward setups, just like the trade we just walked through. Join now and get instant access to our top-ranked trade signals—because opportunities like this don’t wait.

Visit Us At Signal Trader Pro!

Disclaimer: This post is not financial advice. The stock market is risky, and any trade or investment is expected to have some, or total, loss. Please do your own research before making any trades. Do not use this information for investment decisions.