Post-Trade Analysis: Marriott International (MAR) Revisited

“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”

Warren Buffett

Hello Traders! Mark from the Signal Trader Pro team here

Each week, we break down a trade to show exactly how the Signal Trader Pro algorithm works—and what we can learn from it. Today, we’re revisiting a familiar name: Marriott International (MAR). This global hospitality leader gave us yet another high-probability opportunity in 2025, and our system was ready.

Company Overview:

Marriott International (MAR)

With over 8,800 properties across 139 countries and 30+ brands, Marriott International continues to be a global force in hospitality. Its asset-light model—driven by franchise and management fees—generates stable cash flows while keeping capital costs low. The Marriott Bonvoy loyalty program, with over 200 million members, further entrenches its market dominance.

As we’ve seen before, even strong companies aren’t immune to market-wide volatility—and that's exactly what created our latest opportunity.

You may notice this trade followed a similar pattern to our August 2024 Marriott trade—underscoring how repeatable setups in quality names can deliver consistent edge.

Spotting the Opportunity:

Market Context & Setup

After hitting an all-time high of $307 on February 7, 2025, Marriott’s stock began to slide—accelerated by a post-earnings pullback on February 11. Over the next month, the stock dropped more than 17%, bottoming out on March 14.

This wasn’t isolated. The broader market was down around 11% during the same period. But while fear dominated the headlines, our system saw opportunity brewing.

On March 14, Marriott’s RSI dipped below 30, signaling oversold conditions. By March 18, the RSI had crossed back above 30—triggering a classic Signal Trader Pro entry at $241.

Just like in 2024, Marriott’s Quantamental Score remained a perfect 15/15, despite the volatility—underscoring its fundamental strength.

Navigating the Trade:

Risk, Patience & Recovery

Things didn’t turn around immediately.

The market faced another sharp drop following the April 4 tariff announcement, dragging Marriott down nearly 13% from our entry. But thanks to our alpha-based stop loss, we stayed in the trade: while Marriott was down 13%, the market was also off nearly 10%—keeping us within our 10% relative alpha tolerance.

Following the tariff pause announcement, the market quickly recovered, and so did Marriott. We exited the trade on May 14 at $273, locking in a 13.2% gain over 57 days, with a 7.9% alpha vs. the market. Annualized, that’s a 84% return.

Quantamental Scoring Review

Each week, we highlight a portion of our proprietary Quantamental Scoring Algorithm, which evaluates stocks based on a blend of technical and fundamental factors.

Technical Screening System

We look for stocks in strong long-term uptrends that experience temporary pullbacks.

Marriott once again checked all the boxes in our scoring system:

• Strong Trend Structure – Both the 50DMA and 100DMA stayed above the 200DMA, confirming a strong uptrend.

• Positive Momentum – Marriott maintained a positive return year over year despite short-term volatility.

• RSI Cross Over Signal – Marriott’s RSI dropped below 30 and then crossed back above it, a key oversold reversal signal and historically a great buying opportunity.

Earnings Surprise Analysis

Earnings surprises play a huge role in stock price movements. Companies that consistently beat expectations tend to outperform.

For Marriott, we reviewed 12 quarters of earnings history and found it had beaten expectations over 75% of the time—across EPS, revenue, and cash flow. This contributed a full 3 points to our scoring system and increased our confidence in the trade.

Post-Trade Reflections:

What this Trade Taught Us

This Marriott trade was a real-time example of Signal Trader Pro’s algorithm in action: buying strength during fear, sticking with conviction, and exiting with disciplined profits.

Same ticker. Different cycle. Same outcome: high-probability alpha.

One of the biggest takeaways from this trade?

Strong stocks often come back.

This trade reminded us that even the best names eventually come back to reasonable, oversold levels. And when they do, the risk-reward becomes asymmetric again.

It’s not about catching every move. It’s about catching the right ones, at the right time, with a system that stacks the odds in your favor.

Bottom line: Be patient. Let great trades come to you.

There’s always another one around the corner.

What did you take away from today’s newsletter? Drop a comment, let us know in the STP WhatsApp group chat or email us at [email protected].

Disclaimer: This post is not financial advice. The stock market is risky, and any trade or investment is expected to have some, or total, loss. Please do your own research before making any trades. Do not use this information for investment decisions.