Post-Trade Analysis: PulteGroup (PHM)

Hello Traders!
Mark from the Signal Trader Pro team here.

Each week, we break down a real trade to show you exactly how the Signal Trader Pro algorithm works—and what we can learn from it.

Today, we’re inspecting a name in the homebuilding space: PulteGroup (PHM).

This trade didn’t go our way. But often, the most valuable lessons come from setups that test our discipline—and push us to refine our system.

Despite showing early promise, our PHM trade ended with a 10.3% loss over 147 days. Here’s how it played out—and how it’s influencing the evolution of our exit strategy.

Company Overview: PulteGroup (NYSE: PHM)

PulteGroup is one of the largest homebuilders in the United States, with operations across key housing markets and a strong track record of earnings growth. The stock had enjoyed a significant uptrend through much of 2024.

Spotting the Opportunity: Market Context & Setup

PHM hit an all-time high of $149.47 on October 18, 2024, shortly before posting a modest earnings beat on October 22. That report marked the beginning of a prolonged, profit-taking decline—a common reaction when extended stocks reach consensus price targets.

By late December, the stock had stabilized near the $110 level after falling nearly 26% from its highs. On January 6, 2025, our RSI Crossover Signal triggered as the RSI climbed back above 30—indicating a potential reversal from oversold conditions.

Fundamentally, the setup checked nearly every box—PHM scored a 14/15 in our Quantamental framework, backed by a strong history of earnings surprises. This looked like a textbook reversion-to-the-mean opportunity in a fundamentally sound name.

Executing the Trade: Entry & Exit

We entered the position at $109.58 on January 6, 2025. Over the next few weeks, the trade played out as expected: PHM rallied nearly 10% by January 30, confirming our thesis early.

As tariff headlines began to weigh on the broader market in late February, PHM resumed its selloff. Our alpha-based stop loss kept us in the position during the downturn, allowing for a possible rebound.

However, while the S&P 500 staged a strong “V-shaped” recovery starting April 8, PHM failed to participate. That relative weakness—paired with prolonged underperformance—prompted our exit on June 3, 2025, at $98.34, locking in a 10.3% loss.

Post-Trade Reflections: What this Trade Taught Us.

This trade offered a clear lesson: we had a meaningful profit on the table, but gave it back as market volatility increased. Our stop kept us in—but PHM's failure to keep up with the broader market was a signal of relative weakness.

This insight is pushing us to evolve our system with a refined exit protocol—one that preserves gains without cutting short the potential for trend continuation.

We’re taking this lesson seriously. Here’s the insight we’re acting on:

We’re currently testing an enhanced exit strategy designed to balance risk protection with upside capture:

• Take partial profits: Trim the position into strength once a defined gain threshold is hit (e.g., +5–7%)

• De-risk the remainder: Raise the stop on the remaining shares to breakeven

• Let winners run: Ride the rest toward our retracement targets

This refined approach is designed to:

• Lock in early alpha

• Free up capital

• Mitigate downside risk

• Protect against macro-driven volatility

We’re backtesting this framework across past setups—and results are encouraging.

Let us know what you think—what's your go-to method for protecting gains without cutting trades short?

Quantamental Scoring Review

Each week, we highlight a key part of how the Signal Trader Pro algorithm evaluates high-probability setups by combining technical structure with fundamental strength.

Technical Setup

We look for stocks in strong long-term uptrends that experience temporary pullbacks.

PHM fit the criteria we look for:

• Strong Trend Structure – The 50DMA and 100DMA remained above the 200DMA, confirming a healthy long-term trend.

• Positive Momentum – Despite the drawdown, the stock maintained a positive year-over-year return.

• RSI Cross Over Signal – RSI fell below 30 and crossed back above it—a key oversold reversal signal with historically strong results.

Earnings Surprise Analysis

Companies that consistently exceed expectations tend to outperform.
PHM had done just that—beating earnings estimates in over 85% of the last 12 quarters—supporting its strong quantamental score and validating our initial thesis.

We’ll be back next week with another trade breakdown—win, lose, or draw—because every trade has something to teach us.

Until then, stay focused, stay disciplined, and stay Signal-Driven.

What did you take away from today’s newsletter? Drop a comment, let us know in the STP WhatsApp group chat or email us at [email protected].

Disclaimer: This post is not financial advice. The stock market is risky, and any trade or investment is expected to have some, or total, loss. Please do your own research before making any trades. Do not use this information for investment decisions.