Post-Trade Analysis: National Retail Properties (NNN)

Hey Traders — Mark here from the Signal Trader Pro team!

Each week, we break down real trades to show how the Signal Trader Pro algorithm spots high-probability setups—and what we can learn from the wins, the losses, and the trades that stall mid-course.

Today, we’re walking through a recent trade in National Retail Properties (NNN)—a steady REIT that triggered a textbook oversold setup in our system. While this trade didn’t deliver the upside we initially envisioned, it showcased the strength of our dynamic exit process and reinforced an important lesson: managing time is just as critical as managing risk.

Company Overview:

National Retail Properties, Inc. (NNN)

National Retail Properties (NYSE: NNN) is a real estate investment trust focused on acquiring and managing single-tenant retail properties across the United States. With over 3,500 properties and a long history of stable occupancy and dividend growth, NNN has built a reputation for reliability in the net lease space. However, in late 2024, investor sentiment cooled following rating downgrades tied to a cloudy tenant outlook—setting the stage for a potential mean-reversion opportunity.

Spotting the Opportunity:

Market Context & Setup

In October 2024, NNN began selling off after analysts issued downgrades citing concerns over tenant quality and leasing risk.

By mid-December, the stock had dropped sharply enough to trigger our oversold alert: its RSI fell below 30, and our scoring system flagged a perfect 15/15 Quantamental Score, signaling a high probability trade with a low risk entry point.

Our initial thesis: this was a fundamentally sound company experiencing a temporary dislocation.

Executing the Trade: Entry & Exit

We entered the trade on December 24, 2024 at $40.56 after RSI crossed back above 30.

We set an initial price target of $46.56, based on a 2/3 retracement to its 90-day trailing high.

Rather than retracing its drawdown, NNN entered a sideways channel between $37 and $44, staying rangebound for months. Neither our stop loss nor our target was triggered. Our alpha-based stop kept us in the position during broader market weakness, as the stock outperformed on a relative basis.

Over time, our dynamic price target adjusted downward to reflect the new reality of NNN’s compressed trading range. Our final target settled at $41.95, and we exited the trade on June 10, 2025 at $42.48—a 4.7% gain over 167 days, with a maximum drawdown of approximately 7.5% and +4.4% alpha versus the Russell 1000.

While the return was positive and the alpha was solid, the annualized gain of ~10% left room for improvement.

Post-Trade Reflections:

What This Trade Taught Us

This trade underscores an important truth: when a stock stalls, it can tie up valuable capital even if the fundamentals remain intact.

While we exited with a gain, our holding period (167 days) was more than 3x our average for winning trades (51 days). The opportunity cost was significant, and the annualized return didn’t justify the time commitment.

As a result, we’re reviewing our exit models and will begin back testing a 60-day lookback period—instead of 90 days—when recalibrating price targets in slower-moving trades.

Price Target Recalibration Refresher

At Signal Trader Pro, we’re not just looking for entries—we’re also laser-focused on smart, systematic exits, especially for trades that start to take the scenic route to profits.

We know that most successful trades resolve within 90 days. When they don’t, our price target recalibration algorithm kicks in.

Our system uses a 2/3 retracement of the trailing high—currently based on a 90-day window. If a stock starts to flatten or consolidate, we aim to exit near the upper boundary of that new range—before the trade starts costing us in terms of missed opportunities.

This flexible approach allowed us to exit with a gain, preserve capital, and free up resources to pursue stronger opportunities.

Have you been stuck in a sideways trade? How did you exit the trade? Drop a comment, let us know in the STP WhatsApp group chat or email us at [email protected].

Disclaimer: This post is not financial advice. The stock market is risky, and any trade or investment is expected to have some, or total, loss. Please do your own research before making any trades. Do not use this information for investment decisions.