Post-Trade Analysis: Archrock Inc (AROC)

Hello Traders!

Mark from the Signal Trader Pro team here.

Each week, we break down a real trade to show you exactly how the Signal Trader Pro algorithm works—and what we can learn from it.

Today, we’re assessing a name in the energy infrastructure space: Archrock Inc. (AROC).

This trade ended in the green—and while a 6.6% gain isn’t something we’d normally complain about, in this case, we gave back a larger unrealized profit—and missed a follow-up opportunity in the same stock.

Here’s how it played out—and why it’s reinforcing our push toward smarter exit management.

Company Overview: ArchRock Inc. (NYSE: AROC)

ArchRock provides natural gas compression services to U.S. energy producers and pipeline operators. As an essential link in the midstream infrastructure chain, AROC benefits from sustained natural gas demand, long-term service contracts, and favorable energy production trends. With a relatively high dividend yield and a fee-based business model, AROC can appeal to income-focused investors seeking stable cash flows within the energy services sector—though it remains a niche, under-the-radar name compared to larger midstream players.

Spotting the Opportunity:

Market Context & Setup

After hitting an all-time high of $30.44 on January 21, 2025, AROC sold off sharply—falling 26% to a low of $22.43 by March 10. This pullback pushed its RSI below 30, triggering a textbook oversold reversal setup.

Our system flagged a buy signal on March 11, as RSI crossed back above 30. The stock scored a 14/15 in our Quantamental framework, powered by strong earnings estimate revisions and solid long-term fundamentals.

On March 12, we entered the trade at $24.50, targeting a 2/3 retracement to the recent high—roughly $28.43. It was a clean technical setup in a fundamentally sound name.

Executing the Trade: Entry & Exit

Following our entry, AROC behaved well. It climbed to $27.70 in just two weeks, respecting its 5-day moving average—a strong early confirmation of our thesis.

But the macro environment shifted. On March 27, tariff concerns weighed on the broader market, triggering another leg down in AROC. It bottomed on April 7 at $20.12 and began recovering as the initial tariff pause was announced.

Our alpha-based stop kept us in the trade during this drawdown, and from there, the stock ground higher, but never regained its early strength.

As the trade extended past our typical 60-day holding window, our dynamic price target recalibration process stepped in—lowering the expected exit point to reflect reduced momentum and increasing opportunity cost. We ultimately exited the position on June 9, 2025, at $26.12, capturing a 6.6% gain over 89 days.

Post-Trade Reflections:

What This Trade Taught Us

This trade echoed the lesson from our recent PHM setup: when you have a meaningful profit—especially in a tactical swing trade—locking some of it in is just good risk management.

We had an early unrealized gain of more than 13%, but gave back half by holding out for a full retracement to our initial target. While that approach can lead to higher returns across a broad sample of trades, it can also leave you holding the bag in an individual case.

Even more importantly, by staying in this trade, we missed a second RSI-based opportunity in the same stock that emerged later. Our capital was tied up in a slow-moving recovery while fresher, higher-odds setups appeared.

This wasn’t a long-term hold. It was a swing trade—and our execution should’ve reflected that.

Actionable Takeaway: Improving Exit Strategy

We’re continuing to refine our exit strategy with a simple but powerful framework designed to protect gains without cutting trades short:

• Trim into strength: Take partial profits when a defined gain threshold is hit

• Raise the stop: Move the stop on remaining shares to breakeven

• Let winners run: Hold the rest toward retracement targets

If we had used this approach here, we likely would have secured more of the early upside—and freed up capital to re-enter AROC when a second signal emerged.

We're backtesting this exit structure across past setups—and the results are promising.

Quantamental Scoring Review

Each week, we highlight how the Signal Trader Pro algorithm fuses technical structure with fundamental strength to identify high-probability setups.

Earnings Revision Analysis: The Hidden Catalyst

One of the biggest drivers of stock price movement is earnings revisions—when analysts raise future earnings estimates based on strong financial performance.

For AROC, we saw a strong pattern of upward revisions in earnings estimates for 2025. This confirmed that the fundamental outlook remained strong, even after the sell-off.

We’ll be back next week with another trade breakdown—win, lose, or draw—because every trade has something to teach us.

Until then, stay focused, stay disciplined, and stay Signal-Driven.

What’s your exit strategy? Drop a comment, let us know in the STP WhatsApp group chat or email us at [email protected].

Disclaimer: This post is not financial advice. The stock market is risky, and any trade or investment is expected to have some, or total, loss. Please do your own research before making any trades. Do not use this information for investment decisions.